Spot market trading is sluggish. Under the surplus situation, spot alumina is expected to continue its downward trend in the short term [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 6.19

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,926 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,929 yuan/mt, a low of 2,899 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,910 yuan/mt, up 2 yuan/mt or 0.08% from the previous close, with open interest at 304,000 lots.

Ore: As of June 18, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.37/mt, up $0.31/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $74.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry Updates:

1. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 17.51 million mt of bauxite ore and concentrate in May 2025, down 15.3% MoM and up 29.4% YoY. From January to May, cumulative imports reached 85.18 million mt, up 33.1% YoY.
2. According to China Customs, China exported 210,000 mt of alumina in May 2025, up 104.6% YoY. From January to May, cumulative alumina exports reached 1.17 million mt, up 79.3% YoY.
3. An aluminum smelter in Shanxi recently commenced the construction of a pot upgrading and replacement project, involving the installation of 600KA aluminum pots, with an expected commissioning date in mid-2026.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on June 18, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 311.5 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Daily Report: On June 18, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 2,699 mt from the previous trading day to 60,300 mt. In Shandong, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 601 mt from the previous trading day. In Henan, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 300 mt from the previous trading day. In Guangxi, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 3,001 mt from the previous trading day. In Gansu, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 0 mt from the previous trading day. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 2,699 mt from the previous trading day to 56,400 mt.

Overseas Market: As of June 18, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $22.00/mt and a USD/CNY selling rate around 7.20. This price translates to an approximate external selling price of around 3,271 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 65 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed.

Summary: On the cost side, bauxite prices are mainly fluctuating and adjusting, with alumina production costs remaining relatively stable. The theoretical profit of the alumina industry has narrowed somewhat due to the decline in spot prices, but it still maintains a theoretical profit of over 300 yuan/mt. Supply and demand side, the operating capacity of alumina remains high, and the supply of alumina in the spot market is more abundant compared to the previous period. Overall, alumina spot prices are expected to continue to face downward pressure in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not rely on this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]